Toronto Real Estate Speculators Causing a GTA Market Bubble?
There’s been a lot of talk of a “housing bubble” in the Greater Toronto real estate market. Many pundits are talking about speculators – domestic investors fuelling an already overheated market. RE/MAX looked at just over 5,000 individual freehold transactions in the GTA between March 15, 2019 and March 14, 2021 and found that less than 2% of sales were repeated in that time period, leading to the conclusion that speculators are not a significant factor driving the current market and rising prices.
RE/MAX examined home-buying activity in six Greater Toronto Area neighbourhoods – C03, W05, E01, Erin Mills, Aurora and Northwest Ajax – on properties priced between $500,000 and $1,499,999.
Of the 1.58% transactions between March 2019 and March 2021 that were repeat sales, only approximately 20% of these indicated that renovations were made between sales.
Wrong Conditions for Speculators
Investors tend to wait out hot markets, preferring to buy when prices are down and sell when they’re up again. Those who are looking for short-term investment opportunities in the Toronto housing market (and in many other Canadian regional, for that matter) will be hard-pressed to find them under current conditions.
Bully offers and bidding wars are commonplace in the current market, with demand outpacing supply in virtually all areas of the GTA and the winner buyer paying top dollar. The current environment is simply too hot for investors and builders.
There may very well be some investment/speculation occurring in the GTA condo market, as pricing dropped in tandem with condo sales, but investors have always played a role in the condominium market so this isn’t entirely surprising. That’s unlikely to end anytime soon.
RE/MAX Brokers Say Homebuyers Are Not Speculators
RE/MAX brokers in the GTA were clear that there is no speculation in the market at this point. We took our research a step further and conducted an online survey of RE/MAX brokers and agents in Western Canada, Ontario and Atlantic Canada. A landslide 96% confirmed that the majority of homebuyers are end users, while only 4% were classified as speculators. With a freehold market that’s being driven by end users, upward pressure on housing values is often a function of limited supply.
If Not Speculators, Who (Or What) is Driving Toronto Real Estate Prices?
There are many other factors that may be contributing to the dramatic price growth across the Canadian real estate market. Covid-19 prompted a spike in sales of single-detached homes at a time when condominium sales have dipped, and prices of detached homes are traditionally higher than condominiums. We’ve also seen an uptick in the luxury freehold market, with sales over $3 million posting their best year on record in 2020. All of these factors tend to skew prices higher.
To illustrate, this data table depicts the average prices for detached homes and condominiums from January 1-February 28, 2021, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.
The Market is Self-Regulating
After some concerns of overheating earlier in the year, there has been a shift in the market activity in recent weeks with more detached inventory coming on-stream. In areas north of the 416, the increase in new listings appears to be meeting demand, with fewer bidding wars taking place. Evidence of this can be found in the number of listings that have been cancelled and reintroduced to the market at a higher price point. The 416 also reported growing inventory levels.
Covid-19 fatigue is playing a role as well, with some purchasers taking a step back from the heated market conditions experienced during the second half of 2020 and in the first quarter of 2021.
The Future of Canadian Real Estate
What’s in store for Toronto real estate, and Canada as a whole? While it’s difficult to predict the market with the uncertainty around Covid-19 and the economy, we expect domestic buyers to continue to be active in the market, due to a number of factors.
Interest rates are playing a major role in spurring home-buying activity, as buyers scramble to take advantage. The government is committed to low interest rates until the “economic slack is absorbed.”
Equity gains are inspiring existing homeowners to trade up to larger homes or better neighbourhoods – both in and outside of the city.
Pent-up demand is also a going concern. For every bidding war, there is a handful of disappointed buyers. They’re still out there, and they’re still hoping to buy a home.
Savings have grown year over year, and some purchasers are sitting on a substantial amount of money. With traditional “safe” investment vehicles like GICs yielding next-to-nothing returns, and stock market risks, many are choosing to invest in their principal residence. The Bank of Canada says savings rose to $180 billion in 2020. Statistics Canada says that the household savings rate was at 14.6% in Q3 2020 and economists estimate that figure will be 13% in the Q4 and continue into 2021. To put that number into context, the average savings rate in 2019 was 1.4%.
Strong economic growth is expected as the vaccine rolls out and confidence returns to the market.
Immigration will ramp up, with an anticipated 401,000 new Canadians coming this year, another 411,000 in 2022, and 421,000 more in 2023. The February 13 Express Entry draw invited almost 28,000 candidates to apply for permanent residence.
Source: blog.remax.ca
TRREB Market Watch – February 2021 Stats
Record home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) continued in February as buyers remained confident in their employment situations and took advantage of ultra-low borrowing costs. With multiple buyers continuing to compete for many available listings, double-digit annual price growth was the norm throughout the GTA, with stronger rates of growth in the suburbs surrounding the City of Toronto.
GTA REALTORS® reported 10,970 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in February 2021 – a 52.5 per cent increase compared to 7,193 sales reported in February 2020. Looking at all areas of the GTA combined, the condominium apartment segment led the way with a 64 per cent sales increase compared to last year, with similar rates of increase in the ‘416’ and ‘905’ area codes.
“It’s clear that the historic demand for housing experienced in the second half of last year has carried forward into the first quarter of this year with some similar themes, including the continued popularity of suburban low-rise properties. It’s also evident that the supply of listings is not keeping up with demand, which could present an even larger problem once population growth picks up following widespread vaccinations later this year and into 2022,” said TRREB President Lisa Patel.
The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 14.8 per cent year-over-year in February 2021. Over the same period, the average selling price was up by 14.9 per cent to $1,045,488. While market conditions were tight throughout the GTA region in February, the detached, semi-detached and townhouse market segments in suburban areas were the drivers of average price growth, with annual rates of increase above 20 per cent in all three cases.
“In the absence of a marked uptick in inventory, the current relationship between demand and supply supports continued double-digit average home price growth this year. In addition, if we continue to see growth in condo sales outstrip growth in new condo listings in Toronto, renewed price growth in this market segment is a distinct possibility in the second half of the year,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.
Homegrown marijuana may have a real estate cost
Homegrown marijuana may seem like a good idea with legalization throughout Canada happening on October 17, 2018. Yes, it will be legal, but this doesn’t come without risk. Read on to see what the Globe and Mail has to say.
The national organization representing home appraisers is warning that growing cannabis at home will soon be legal, but it still comes with a risk.
The new law legalizing cannabis includes allowing Canadians to grow a maximum of four plants in their homes. Keith Lancastle, chief executive of the Appraisal Institute of Canada (AIC), is calling on the federal government to help educate homeowners on what he calls the dangers of growing at home.
“The challenge with cultivation of homegrown marijuana, is the ability of the plants themselves to get so large given the right amount of light and moisture,” Mr. Lancastle said. The impact of four cannabis plants is more akin to setting up a greenhouse for hothouse tomatoes, he says, than simply having four sizable houseplants. “Humidity is a byproduct of normal growth and it could well become an issue for the property. You either deal with moisture damage or potentially mould. If you had mould that ran amok … you hear the horror stories of people having to take houses right down to the studs and starting over again [for remediation] – although that would be an extreme case.”
Realtors, insurers, rental property owners and even some provinces have sounded off on the risks of homegrown marijuana in a residential spaces. Some have pressed for outright bans on the practice.
Alberta’s Boardwalk Communities, one of the province’s largest corporate landlords, recently banned not just growing but also smoking and even eating cannabis products in its apartments. The provinces of Manitoba and Quebec have included in their cannabis legislation provincial offences that would fine anyone who attempts to grow at home. The federal Minister of Justice, Jody Wilson-Raybould, has said the Liberal government would not take those provinces to court over their home-growing regulations, but said she couldn’t do anything about a private citizen choosing to contest those laws.
In Ontario, the cannabis bill introduced by the Progressive Conservative government focused on privatizing cannabis retailers, but it left aside the issue of homegrown marijuana.
“Our point of view is, let’s hit the pause button on legalizing grow-at-home operations until we have some foundational elements in place,” said Tim Hudak, president of the Ontario Real Estate Association and a former leader of the Ontario PC Party. Under Mr. Hudak, OREA has been lobbying hard to urge different levels of government to slow down the expansion of home cultivation until things such as home-inspector retraining and municipal registries for illegal grow operations can be increased.
He was unable to persuade the federal government to block tenants or owners in multi-residential buildings from home cultivation, but he hopes the Ontario government will join Manitoba and Quebec in an outright ban.
“There’s still a lack of clarity around how mortgages and insurance are going to work if you choose to grow marijuana in your home,” Mr. Hudak said. “And you can bet your bottom dollar that one of the first questions home buyers are going to ask, going forward, is if marijuana was grown in the home.”
Mr. Hudak also pointed to polling data from Nanos Research, which in a September, 2017, survey of 500 Ontarians found 60 per cent of respondents were “concerned” with the potential for property damage related to home-grown cannabis.
Mr. Lancastle says appraisers will have to tread a fine line in dealing with homes where cannabis is in cultivation. Appraisers are barred from sharing personal information about a homeowner discovered during a home inspection.
“The mere presence of marijuana could be considered private information and, therefore, should not be disclosed,” Mr. Lancastle said, citing directives the AIC has received from the Office of the Privacy Commissioner. There is one exception: “If there’s a detrimental condition – mould, water damage, so on and so forth – that is attributable to marijuana, it is acceptable to take a picture.”
One analogue for the kinds of personal or sensitive conditions appraisers would be able to report on might be a room with stripper poles or other acrobatic equipment.
“We’ve had situations where people have gone in and had trapezes and harnesses in the room and all sorts of toys,” said Mr. Lancastle. “If there’s a trapeze hanging from a joist and it’s clear it has caused buckling in the roof, that becomes something that’s a measurable adverse impact on the value, because there’s a cost associated with returning it to marketable condition.”
source: globe and mail
Co-ownership in Toronto may be a good option
Not everyone has the foresight to start saving for a down payment from the time you’re handed your very first pay cheque. Nor does everyone have parents who are able to, or willing to help out with the lofty sum required to purchase your first home in Toronto. This is when co-ownership in Toronto starts to look like a great idea – and it can be! If you’re thinking about buying a home, have a look at our home buying guidelines. Here’s what The Globe and Mail has to say about two friends who purchased a home together in Niagara Falls:
When Shannon Beattie moved into her stately cul-de-sac neighbourhood in Niagara Falls with two other women, her suburban neighbours were wondering what was up. It’s not generally the kind of area where you have roommates.
But they aren’t quite roommates: Ms. Beattie is co-owning the home with a long-time friend and renting out their basement. Thanks to the living situation, she ends up paying $500 a month and gets much more space than her one-bedroom apartment in Toronto, which cost five times as much.
Co-owning is an idea that is starting to catch on as housing prices get further out of reach for new home buyers. Real estate agents and mortgage lenders say they’re seeing more people interested in the idea of splitting a mortgage among two or more people – but they do say that the living arrangement doesn’t work for everybody.
For Ms. Beattie, 34, and co-owner Dawn Vanier, 35, the idea came up while the two were thinking of the best way to buy a home in Niagara Falls, which is itself having a price uptick.
“What you can afford on your own is not a lot,” said Ms. Beattie, who added that Ms. Vanier was looking at moving from a massive 3,500-square-foot house down to a little townhome after a recent separation from her partner.
“We were talking about it over wine one night, and I said ‘what if we bought something together?’”
It started as a casual idea at first, but it turned into reality much quicker and easier than the two of them expected.
Today, the two have their own separate mortgages on the house, meaning that if one decides to sell, they can do so without financially penalizing the other. They live almost exactly like roommates, except that the house is large enough that the two always have their own space when they need it.
“We are roommates – when I refer to her, I say ‘oh my roommate said this or my roommate does that,’” Ms. Beattie said. “All it is, is you have to have much more serious conversations at times.”
Those serious conversations that helped develop their current living situation were aided by the fact that there were already mortgage sellers with experience in co-owning around them.
Meridian Credit Union Ltd., a financial organization that operates in Ontario, even has a mortgage option specifically tailored to co-owning. The company always offered creative mortgages, but they only started branding it as a co-owning mortgage in 2017 when they started seeing increased demand for it.
Jason Davenport, a branch manager at Meridian’s Greektown location in Toronto, said hardly a month goes by where he’s not organizing some sort of creative mortgage for clients. The unique living situations go on and on: two four-person families living together, parents helping their son or daughter buy a home, or just two friends going in on a house together. Sometimes the co-owners split a mortgage evenly, while other times co-owners allocate a part of the house to each owner and set the value of each section.
“This kind of living situation is not uncommon at all now,” said Mr. Davenport, who added that some clients have even asked if more than four people can split a home.
“Ultimately, in a high housing economy, we have to be creative to get access to these spaces.”
He’s been setting up co-owning mortgages for three years, and hasn’t seen any go sour yet. But he does say that a good co-owning situation needs to be preceded by probing conversations that can sometimes be uncomfortable.
“When you put it out, you say ‘this is going to be an awkward conversation for a second,’” said Mr. Davenport, who adds that co-owners need to share a lot: their personal financial information, their thoughts on the value of each part of the home, their plans for the future and what will happen when one person decides to sell.
“For a lack of a better term, it’s a prenuptial on what’s going to happen.”
Essentially, if you’re not able to make compromises, then a co-ownership in Toronto probably isn’t best for you.
That’s what Lesli Gaynor, a real estate agent who specifically caters to co-owners, says.
“The one thing that’s true for anything shared is a notion of being able to be a little more fluid and little more flexible,” said Ms. Gaynor, who has co-owned a home with a friend in the past.
“You have to be able to say, ‘we’ve got a difficult conversation to have, but we’re invested in having it.’”
The payoff is immense when people find the right fit and have those fundamental conversations, she says. She’s seen seniors who are able to share a caregiver and have a better quality of life with more people around. She’s also helped two single mothers who were able to split daily errands such as picking up the kids from school.
Today, she runs a series of “speed-dating” co-owning events in Toronto where people come out and meet others who are looking for a similar shared living situation. It’s more of a lighthearted exercise aimed at helping people realize their own expectations in a co-owning situation, and Ms. Gaynor says more than 50 people showed up to the first event.
Ms. Gaynor says she’s seen a noticeable increase in interest to co-own, and adds that more people are coming to her with realistic plans in place.
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With the money saved by living in Niagara, Ms. Beattie and Ms. Vanier were able to renovate their home and reap the benefits of a large house. GLENN LOWSON/GLOBE AND MAIL
Back in Niagara Falls though, Ms Beattie and Ms. Vanier are the only co-owners that they know of. It wasn’t until their story about co-owning was published in a local newspaper that people in their neighbourhood warmed up to them.
“People thought we were real strange when we told them what we were going to do,” Ms. Beattie says with a laugh.
“The neighbours when we moved in – you know two women, a third in the basement … they probably were like, what is going on here,” said Ms. Beattie, who said that the article helped clear things up.
“They’ve all come up to us after the article and said, ‘oh! So this is the situation.’”
There were some sacrifices that Ms. Beattie had to make as well. The hardest part is that she still works in Toronto a couple days a week, and the commute is not the greatest. But over all, the money saved means that they were able to renovate their home and reap the benefits of a large beautiful house. And because their monthly mortgage payment is so low, they’re able to enjoy everything about living in the Niagara region.
“We both drive around in Mercedes’, we go to wineries every weekend, we go out, it’s a nice life,” Ms. Beattie said.
“It’s kind of laughable that people want to interview me about something so simple. It works for us – it might not work for everyone, but I think you’ll see more of it in the future.”
source: globe and mail
