June 2026 Newsletter

Thurston Olsen Real Estate Group

Hey Friends!

This month, Toronto finds itself on the world stage as we welcome fans, players, and visitors from across the globe for the FIFA World Cup. Whether you’re a soccer fan or not, it’s hard not to feel the excitement. The city is buzzing, patios are packed, and Toronto is once again getting the chance to show off everything that makes it such a great place to live.

That same energy is showing up in some sectors of the real estate market as well. While we’re not seeing sold-out-stadium levels of competition just yet, more buyers are stepping back into the game, listings are moving, and confidence appears to be building as we head into summer.

What’s particularly interesting right now is that opportunities still exist on both sides of the market. Some neighbourhoods and property types are attracting multiple offers, while others continue to give buyers a little more negotiating room. Much like a World Cup match, success often comes down to timing, positioning, and having the right strategy.

As always, whether you’re buying, selling, investing, or simply keeping an eye on the market, understanding what’s happening at the local level is what matters most.

Here’s your June 2026 Market Update. Let’s kick things off (soccer pun intended)

One of the more interesting conversations happening in the market right now is around Ontario’s proposed changes to HST on new construction homes.

The province has introduced legislation aimed at expanding HST relief for buyers of newly built homes, with the headline idea being significant savings. potentially up to $130,000 for eligible purchasers of qualifying new builds. The goal is clear: improve affordability and help stimulate new housing supply at a time when both demand and construction activity have been under pressure.

On the surface, this is a meaningful incentive. For buyers, it could reduce the entry cost into brand new housing and potentially shift more demand toward pre-construction and newly completed homes. For builders, it may help improve project viability and unlock stalled developments that have struggled under higher financing and construction costs.

With that said, it’s important to note that this is still a proposal, not fully implemented policy. The final details, timing, and eligibility rules are still being worked through, and until everything is formally in place, there remains some uncertainty around how and when these savings will actually be applied.

As with most policy shifts in real estate, there are two sides to the story. Increased incentives can be a win for buyers, but they can also influence pricing, demand, and how builders structure future launches. In other words, what looks like “savings” on one side of the equation can sometimes be partially absorbed into pricing dynamics on the other.

We’ll be watching this closely over the coming months as more clarity emerges. If you’ve been considering new construction, this is one of those policy changes that may be worth understanding a little earlier rather than later.

As always, we’ll keep you updated as things evolve.

The Toronto resale market tightened in May compared to last year, with sales up year-over-year while new listings declined significantly (down 18%). In simple terms, more buyers are starting to re-enter the market while fewer new listings are coming online, which is gradually shifting conditions back toward a more balanced (and in some pockets, competitive) environment.

Pricing remains softer than last year overall, with benchmark prices still down year-over-year. However, the pace of decline is moderating, and month-over-month data is beginning to show early signs of stabilization.

What’s notable is the direction of travel: inventory is slowly being absorbed, and in certain neighbourhoods, buyers are starting to regain a bit of urgency as selection tightens. While buyers still generally hold negotiating power in many segments, that leverage is less pronounced than it was earlier in the year.

Looking ahead, if sales continue to strengthen relative to new listings, we could see pricing flatten first, followed by gradual upward pressure as we move further into the year.

Check out the May year-over-year stats below for more information on the current market.

If you would like statistics specific to your neighbourhood, an updated Comparative Market Analysis for your home, or help deciphering what the numbers could mean for you, please let us know and we would be happy to provide that for you.

Help Us, Help Others!

We’re incredibly thankful for the referrals you send our way. They make up a big part of our business. This year, on top of that usual support, we’re aiming to help 12 additional families with buying or selling in Toronto.

If anyone comes to mind who could use some guidance, we’d be honoured by an introduction. We promise to take great care of them (and make you look good).

Have a great month!

Chris and Ford