May 2025 Market Report
May 2025 Newsletter
Thurston Olsen Real Estate Group
Hey Friends!
If you know the TO Group, you know we live for this time of year – not just because patios are buzzing and the Blue Jays are swinging for the fences – but because the Toronto Maple Leafs are in the playoffs and the spring real estate market is in full stride!
There’s just something electric about May in Toronto. The city comes alive – flags on porches, jerseys on backs, and Sold signs popping up on front lawns like spring tulips. Buyers are out, listings are blooming, and for many families, it’s game time.
Whether you’re looking to score your next dream home, weighing a move, or just keeping an eye on the market (while nervously watching OT), we’ve got you covered.
Here’s your May 2025 Market Update – complete with all the latest stats, insights, and opportunities to help you stay ahead of the play.
Let’s drop the puck and get into it!
What We Are Seeing From the Field
April brought a typical seasonal increase in real estate activity compared to March, but total home sales across Toronto were still down compared to this time last year. In fact, Toronto REALTORS® reported 2,129 sales through TRREB’s MLS® system – a 17.5% drop year-over-year. Why? Many buyers are still sitting on the sidelines, waiting for lower borrowing costs and more economic certainty before jumping in.
With that said, new listings were up 6.8%, giving buyers more choice and leverage. With inventory at elevated levels, buyers had more room to negotiate, which put downward pressure on prices across some segments of the market.
Taking into account all market segments in Toronto, the average selling price in April was $1,144,977, down 0.6% compared to April 2024.
What does that mean for you? If you’re a buyer, it’s a rare moment of increased supply and softer prices – a window of opportunity in a market that usually moves fast. If you’re a seller, pricing strategy and presentation are key, especially as more inventory means more competition.
Looking ahead, we expect that many households are keeping a close eye on how the new federal government handles trade relations, particularly with the U.S.
A more optimistic economic outlook could restore consumer confidence and bring more buyers back into the market.
Check out the April year-over-year stats below for more information on the current market. If you would like statistics specific to your neighbourhood, an updated Comparative Market Analysis for your home, or help deciphering what the numbers could mean for you, please let us know and we would be happy to provide that for you.
What to Expect for Housing & Mortgages After the Election
Well – that all happened quickly! With the Liberals re-elected under new leader Mark Carney, and another minority government in place, housing remains front and centre in Canadian policy conversations.
Here’s a quick breakdown of what the election outcome could mean for buyers, sellers, and homeowners:
Help for First-Time Buyers
One of the biggest promises? Removing GST on new homes under $1 million for first-time buyers. That’s a potential savings of up to $50,000. The policy hasn’t been passed yet, but it’s expected to be outlined in the federal budget next month.
Big Push for New Builds
Over $25 billion has been pledged to speed up housing construction – especially affordable and rental units where Canadians want to live – with support for municipalities, non-profits, and developers through low-cost financing.
Infrastructure & Zoning Support
Expect continued investment in transit, utilities, and municipal partnerships to support higher-density development, especially around transit stations — something Toronto has already been moving toward.
Rates Could Dip Further
Economists are predicting that The Bank of Canada may cut rates once or twice more this year, depending on economic conditions. That’s welcome news for variable-rate borrowers and anyone with a renewal coming up. Still, with global uncertainty, the path forward isn’t set in stone.
We’ll have more clarity once the federal budget is released – likely in June. In the meantime, it’s a great opportunity to review your plans and chat through any moves you’re thinking of making this year.
It’s Patio Season! (And we couldn’t be happier)
It’s always an exciting time of year when you can trade winter boots for sunglasses and hit some of your favourite patios! Here are some of our faves:
When we’re feeling laid-back after some tough negotiations, you’ll find us at Betty’s East soaking up the sun with a pint, or enjoying the family-friendly vibes and strong espresso game at Black Pony on Gerrard St E.
CafeTO’s patio setups make the city feel a bit like a Euro vacation (minus the airfare), while Lion on the Beach is perfect for casual hangs and people-watching on Queen St E in the Beach(es).
For tacos and tequila under the stars, it’s hard to beat the back patios at Chula or Tinga Kim in Leslieville. Bonus points to Nodo for pasta, wine, and a great vibe.
Do you have any favourites that we missed? Let us know – our research is always ongoing!
We’re Here To Help!
As always, we would be happy to help you and any of your friends, family, colleagues, or neighbours with real estate services or advice. If you can think of anyone who could use our help, feel free to make an introduction! We promise we’ll make you look good.
Cheers!
Chris and Ford
April 2025 Market Report
April 2025 Newsletter
Thurston Olsen Real Estate Group
Hey Friends!
If you know the TO Group, you know we live for this time of year—not just because Blue Jays baseball is back, but because the Spring Market is heating up!
There’s something about that first crack of the bat that signals the start of a fresh season… and in real estate, it’s no different.
Spring is when the market shakes off the winter frost and comes alive—more listings, more buyers, and more opportunities for families to hit a real estate home run (if one of us is a Dad, does that give us permission to make jokes like that?)
Whether you’re scouting the field for your next place, considering a sale, or just like staying in the know, we’ve rounded up all the key stats and insights to help you make smart moves this spring.
Let’s dive into your April 2025 Real Estate Update—Play Ball!
What We Are Seeing From the Field
We’ve seen some encouraging shifts in the Toronto real estate market this March despite the constant news reports of tariffs, struggling economies, political instability, etc.
But let’s take a closer look at the numbers
Compared to last year, homeownership is becoming more accessible—great news for buyers who’ve been sitting on the sidelines. But for sellers? The sky is not falling. In fact, average prices in the City of Toronto are actually up 2.2% year-over-year—a sign that demand for urban living is still going strong.
Toronto March 2025 Highlights:
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Home sales: down 17.3%
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New listings: up 30.6%
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Average price: up 2.2%
More listings means more choice for buyers, which naturally cools competition a little—but it also brings serious buyers into the market who now feel they can shop around and make confident decisions. If your home is priced well and shows beautifully, you’re still in a solid position to attract attention.
GTA-Wide Trends (for comparison):
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Home sales: down 23.1%
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New listings: up 28.6%
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Average price: down 2.5%
Compared to the GTA as a whole, Toronto is holding its value better and proving that location still matters. We’re also keeping a close eye on interest rate movements—expected cuts this spring could spark renewed activity and bump demand.
Bottom line? Whether you’re buying, selling, or just curious, this market has opportunities—you just need the right game plan. And hey, that’s where we come in
Check out the March year-over-year stats below for more information on the current market. If you would like statistics specific to your neighbourhood, an updated Comparative Market Analysis for your home, or help deciphering what the numbers could mean for you, please let us know and we would be happy to provide that for you.
In the News
We always get a kick out of some of the headlines we see about Toronto real estate.
We get it—journalists need to grab attention, and a dramatic headline is a great way to get people clicking and reading.
The problem? Sometimes those catchy titles can lead to a misunderstanding of the facts, which can stir confusion and even impact the market itself.
So, we thought we’d share a couple of recent headlines and offer some context. We’d love to hear your take, too! Feel free to reply to this email or give us a call. It’s always refreshing to hear perspectives from outside the Toronto real estate bubble we live in every day.
Headline: “Buyers offering way under asking price for homes in most parts of Toronto Area”
You might assume that prices have dropped significantly—but is that really the case? The truth is, listing strategies are always changing.
When a home sells “over asking,” it’s often just selling for market value. In many neighbourhoods, sellers will price a home below its true value to attract more buyers and spark competition. The goal? Drive the price up and sell “over asking.”
But that doesn’t always work.
Sometimes the market doesn’t respond, and the seller re-lists at a higher price with room to negotiate downward—closer to true market value. It all depends on the neighbourhood, timing, and what strategy is working that week. If we look at the average value of a home in the City of Toronto comparing March to February of 2025, the price has actually increased by 2.2%, which would prove that prices are not tumbling.
The market is always shifting and that’s why it’s extremely important to hire a professional who works in the market 7 days a week (that’s us!).
Headline: “Canadian Mortgage Arrears Climb To The Highest Rate Since 2021”
At first glance, that headline may have you thinking Canada is in serious trouble and homeowners are dropping their keys at the bank. But let’s take a breath and look at the facts.
First, a quick reminder: a mortgage is technically in arrears if a payment is just one day late. That’s it! And while the term sounds scary, it’s one of the most misunderstood economic indicators out there.
Yes, rising costs have made it harder for many households to stay perfectly on track. And yes, sometimes a late payment happens—not always because someone can’t afford their home, but because there’s simply less wiggle room these days.
Let’s look at the actual data:
The Canadian Bankers Association recently reported that the mortgage arrears rate in Canada rose slightly to 0.22% in January. That’s a 57% increase from the record low in 2022—but still well below 1%.
So, is that really a sign of mass panic? Or just a small shift in a very large system?
If you know us, you know we’re generally glass-half-full kind of guys. Of course, we never want to see anyone default on a mortgage—but let’s not let scary headlines paint an exaggerated picture. This is more of a blip than a crisis, in our humble opinion.
Do you have any other headlines that you’d like for us to analyze and provide perspective? Feel free to send them our way!
We’re Here To Help!
As always, we would be happy to help you and any of your friends, family, colleagues, or neighbours with real estate services or advice. If you can think of anyone who could use our help, feel free to make an introduction! We promise we’ll make you look good.
Cheers!
Chris and Ford
December 2024 Market Report
December 2024 Newsletter
Thurston Olsen Real Estate Group
Hey Friends!
As 2024 comes to a close, we want to take a moment to say THANK YOU to each and every one of you for helping to make 2024 an incredible year in real estate for the TO Group. Your trust, support, and referrals have made all the difference, and it’s been an absolute privilege helping you and your people navigate the Toronto market.
From finding dream homes to building wealth through smart investments, we’re grateful to be part of the journey.
Here’s to an even brighter 2025—cheers to you and your families!
Now, let’s take a few minutes to give you another Real Estate update for December 2024.
Mark Your Calendars! The Bank of Canada Makes Their Next Rate Announcement on December 11th
The Bank of Canada is set to announce its final interest rate decision of the year on December 11th. This will set the tone for borrowing costs heading into 2025, with impacts on mortgage rates and affordability. Many are speculating that the overnight rate will decrease by either 0.25% or 0.5%. This will directly affect those who have or will be going for variable rate mortgages.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the fixed rates as they follow the bond yields and are not as directly related to the Bank of Canada overnight rate as the variable rates are. The election of Donald Trump in the USA will have some effect, but as long as we continue to see weaker economic information from Canada (ie. increased unemployment rates) the fixed rates have a good chance of staying low.
If you’re up for renewal in the next year or two, it never hurts to reach out to a mortgage broker to discuss options.
Need a recommendation? We have some great mortgage partners that are here to help. Just ask!
Reminder! Bold Mortgage Reforms: Making Home Ownership More Accessible in Canada
Exciting mortgage policy changes take effect on December 15th, offering new opportunities for buyers:
- 30-Year Amortizations for First-Time Buyers & New Builds: Lower monthly payments mean improved affordability, but higher overall interest costs.
- Higher Purchase Threshold for Minimal Down Payments: Buyers can now put less than 20% down on homes priced up to $1.5M (up from $1M), though carrying costs remain significant.
- Easier Lender Switching: Insured mortgage holders can renew with a different lender without a stress test, encouraging better rate competition.
These reforms aim to make buying a home easier but may also increase market competition and boost prices. We anticipate that this will have the biggest effect on homes in the $1M-$1.3M range. We see a huge opportunity for multi-unit homes where buyers can buy with less down and can supplement the higher costs of borrowing with rental income.
What We Are Seeing From the Field
The Toronto housing market is heating up as home sales surged by 39.1% year-over-year in November 2024. Buyers are jumping in, thanks to reduced borrowing costs and favorable market conditions, while new listings increased by a modest 4.2% compared to November 2023. However, this imbalance tightened market conditions, nudging the average home price up 2.8% year-over-year to $1,080,167.
Key Highlights:
- Home Sales: 2,236 homes sold in November, with single-family detached homes driving much of the price growth.
- Listings: 4,360 new listings entered the market, showcasing more opportunities for buyers.
- Condo Market: While prices remain just below last year’s levels (down 1%), ample choice gives condo buyers strong negotiating power.
What’s Ahead?
With population growth fueling housing demand and borrowing costs trending lower, experts anticipate a robust market recovery in 2025.
This upbeat market trend hints at exciting times ahead. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or invest, now’s the time to plan your next move! Let’s Chat
Shout Out To A Local Business
In The Beach – Landscape Maintenance Specialists
Getting tired of staying on top of lawn maintenance, fall clean-ups, and snow removal? For some of us, life gets busy and exterior home maintenance tends to take a back seat. Why not consider hiring a trust-worthy professional and LOCAL company to help you protect your greatest investment, your home?
Our friends at In The Beach are a friendly and professional crew that focus on quality, dependability, and respect for their clients.
Book your seasonal services now and let the pros handle the hard work while you stay cozy indoors. Contact them today to secure your spot and make sure you mention that The TO Group sent you!
Thank You for Making Our Holiday Season Food Drive a Huge Success!
(We may need a bigger truck for the next one!)
Thanks to the incredible generosity of many, our East Side Food Drive Holiday Season food drive in support of the Daily Bread Food Bank was a huge success—our most rewarding one yet!
We couldn’t have done it without you! Every donation made a real difference for families who needed it most. A heartfelt thank you to everyone who contributed.
Let’s continue making an impact together!
As always, we’re here for any real estate services or advice you, your family, or friends might need. Whether it be next week, next month, or next year, it’s never too early to have a chat regarding real estate plans. Feel free to introduce us—we promise to make you look great! ?
Cheers!
Chris and Ford
Our Global Referral Network with RE/MAX and the TO Group
Feeling Cold and Looking for Some Sun?
Tap Into Our Global Referral Network with RE/MAX and the TO Group
Hey Friends,
We hope you’re doing well! It’s that time of the year where the cold weather has kicked in and you might be wishing you were somewhere warm right about now.
We thought this might be a good opportunity to let you know that our brokerage has just opened an office in Naples, Florida!
Imagine spending half of the year playing golf in sunny Florida, surfing in South America, or enjoying the extensive history of Europe.
You may have dreamed of owning a property outside of the GTA and you may not know where to start. We have good news – we can help!
We wanted to remind you that as part of the RE/MAX family, we have access to a vast global referral network that spans not only the GTA or Ontario, but worldwide.
Whether you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell a property, be it here in Toronto or anywhere around the globe, our referral network connects us with top agents internationally.
This means you can trust us to find the right expert, no matter where your next move or investment takes you.
If you or anyone in your circle needs real estate assistance, please don’t hesitate to reach out. We’re always here to help, with the power of a trusted global network behind us!
Cheers!
Ford and Chris
