March 2026 Market Report
March 2026 Newsletter
Thurston Olsen Real Estate Group
Hey Friends!
March is when the Toronto market really starts to stretch its legs. The quiet pause of January fades, new listings begin to pop up, and buyers who spent the winter “just watching” suddenly start stepping into the game. You can almost feel the energy shifting across Toronto as we move closer to the spring market.
It’s also the time of year when some of the bigger conversations about housing in Toronto start bubbling up again. Development is one of them. Some people welcome the cranes on the skyline as a sign that our growing city is creating more homes. Others worry about the impact on neighbourhood character, traffic, and years of construction disruption. Like most things in real estate, there are thoughtful arguments on both sides.
What we do know is this: demand for housing in Toronto isn’t going anywhere. As the market slowly builds momentum, strategy, timing, and preparation are becoming more important than ever for buyers and sellers looking to make smart moves this year.
Here’s your March 2026 Market Update. Let’s dive in.
Toronto Development: Progress or Pain?
If you’ve lived in Toronto for more than five minutes, you’ve probably had this conversation.
“Why are they building another condo here?”
Or…
“Where else are people supposed to live?”
The truth? Both sides have valid points.
The Case For Development
Toronto continues to grow. New families, newcomers, young professionals, downsizers, and they all need housing. Without new supply, prices can climb quickly, making it harder for the next generation to put down roots.
New development can also bring:
- Increased housing options (condos, purpose-built rentals, townhomes)
- Revitalized streetscapes and infrastructure upgrades
- New retail, restaurants, and amenities
- Long-term property value growth in evolving neighbourhoods
Growth, when done well, can mean vibrancy. Think improved transit, better walkability, and more complete communities. Cities either grow… or they slowly fade. Toronto clearly isn’t choosing the second option.
The Case Against Development
On the flip side, change isn’t always comfortable.
Residents often worry about:
- Increased traffic and congestion
- Strain on schools, parks, and transit
- Years of construction noise and disruption
- Loss of neighbourhood character
For homeowners who moved in for tree-lined streets and a certain “feel,” a 40-storey tower next door can feel like a shock to the system. Development can sometimes outpace infrastructure planning, which is where frustration tends to boil over.
The Real Conversation
This isn’t really about “pro” versus “anti” development. It’s about balance.
How do we add housing without overwhelming communities?
How do we protect neighbourhood character while still making room for the next generation?
How do we plan smarter so infrastructure keeps up with growth?
Toronto’s challenge isn’t whether to grow, it’s how to grow well.
And whether you love cranes on the skyline or wish they’d take a holiday, the reality is that development will continue shaping our city. The key is thoughtful planning, strong community input, and policies that aim for long-term livability.
So… Where Do You Stand?
Are you in the “build more homes yesterday” camp?
Or the “let’s protect the neighbourhood feel” camp?
Maybe you’re somewhere in the middle – supportive of growth, but only if it’s done thoughtfully.
We’d genuinely love to hear your take.
Hit reply and let us know:
- Is there a development near you that you’re excited about?
- Or one that makes you shake your head every time you drive by?
- Do you think Toronto is growing the right way?
These conversations matter. Development impacts property values, rental demand, neighbourhood character, and long-term investment potential….whether we’re talking about a condo downtown or a family home in the core.
Your perspective helps us better understand what local families are thinking, which ultimately helps us serve you (and others) at a higher level.
Looking forward to hearing your thoughts, we read every reply.
What We Are Seeing From the Field
The latest numbers from Toronto Regional Real Estate Board suggest the market is tightening, but maybe not in the way many people expected.
In February, there were 1,491 home sales across Toronto, about 3% lower than this time last year. At first glance that might sound like the market is slowing, but the bigger story is actually happening on the supply side.
New listings dropped roughly 13% year-over-year, meaning fewer homes are coming to market. When listings fall faster than sales, it naturally starts tightening conditions and can increase competition among buyers over time.
Right now, many buyers appear to be taking a “wait and see” approach – watching prices closely and hoping for stability before jumping in. At the same time, industry estimates suggest more than 100,000 potential buyers are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the right moment.
Prices have adjusted over the past year as well. The average Toronto home price in February was $1,019,144, roughly 6% lower than a year ago.
What does this mean in practical terms?
If listing inventory continues to remain tight heading into the spring market, the combination of limited supply and pent-up buyer demand could bring more competition back into the market, particularly in desirable neighbourhoods.
In other words: the spring market may end up being less about how many buyers are out there and more about how many homes actually come up for sale.
Check out the February year-over-year stats below for more information on the current market.
If you would like statistics specific to your neighbourhood, an updated Comparative Market Analysis for your home, or help deciphering what the numbers could mean for you, please let us know and we would be happy to provide that for you.
Help Us, Help Others!
We’re incredibly thankful for the referrals you send our way. They make up a big part of our business. This year, on top of that usual support, we’re aiming to help 12 additional families with buying or selling in Toronto.
If anyone comes to mind who could use some guidance, we’d be honoured by an introduction. We promise to take great care of them (and make you look good.
Have a great month!
Chris and Ford
February 2026 Market Report
February 2026 Newsletter
Thurston Olsen Real Estate Group
Hey Friends!
February is when the market starts to wake up. The initial pause of the new year is behind us, conversations are getting more serious, and we’re seeing early signs of activity from buyers and sellers who are planning ahead for spring.
We’re heading into the rest of 2026 feeling encouraged by the momentum building across the city, and grateful for the trust and conversations we continue to have with so many of you. Whether it’s long-term planning, early prep, or just keeping a close eye on the numbers, this is a month where clarity really matters.
The Toronto market is offering opportunities for those paying attention. Strategy, timing, and preparation are becoming increasingly important as confidence slowly builds.
Here’s your February 2026 Market Update. Let’s keep moving forward with clarity and confidence.
Has Home Ownership In Toronto Become More Affordable?
Since the start of 2024, we’ve seen something Toronto buyers haven’t enjoyed in a while: prices and mortgage rates moving in the right direction at the same time. Average home prices are meaningfully lower than their peak, and mortgage rates have come down from the highs we were dealing with just a couple of years ago.
The average home price has dropped from about $1.06M in 2024 to just under $987K in early 2026, while 5-year fixed mortgage rates have eased from 5.5% down to roughly 4.14%. When those two forces work together, monthly payments shrink in a meaningful way.
Here’s the real-world impact:
A typical monthly mortgage payment has fallen from about $5,190 in January 2024 to roughly $4,212 today. That’s nearly $1,000 per month less than what buyers were facing just two years ago, and about $525/month cheaper than January 2025.
That’s not pocket change. That’s daycare money, investment money, or “still enjoying life while owning a home” money.
Now, we recognize that the cost of living in other areas of life may have increased, but at least the cost of home ownership has improved – a highly debated topic that has been at the top of people’s complaint lists for many recent years!
What We Are Seeing From the Field
At a headline level, the market looks calmer than this time last year. Sales are down, average prices are softer, and the pace feels more measured overall. But zoom in, and the story changes quickly.
In well-priced, well-prepared homes, we’re still seeing, in some cases, multiple offers, bully offers, packed showings, and sales well above the asking price. On the other hand, homes that entered the market without a clear strategy are sitting longer, offer nights come and go, and some listings are quietly being re-listed after missing the mark.
This creates a uniquely opportunistic market. Buyers who are prepared and decisive can find real leverage in quieter segments, while sellers who invest in preparation can still generate strong competition and premium results. In today’s market, strong pricing, preparation, and marketing are what separate Sold from Stalled.
Check out the January year-over-year stats below for more information on the current market.
If you would like statistics specific to your neighbourhood, an updated Comparative Market Analysis for your home, or help deciphering what the numbers could mean for you, please let us know and we would be happy to provide that for you.
Vacant Home Tax – Don’t Forget To Declare!
(Yes, We Have To Do This Every Year)
Toronto homeowners, it’s that time of year again! The Vacant Home Tax (VHT) declaration deadline is fast approaching, and even if you live in your home, you still need to file (don’t forget any rental properties)!
Failing to make the declaration by April 30th could result in penalties or even having your home mistakenly classified as vacant, leading to an unexpected tax bill. Yikes!
The tax is now 3% of your current assessed tax value, so if your home was assessed at $800,000 you could be on the hook for $24,000 in tax!
*Keep in mind that MPAC generally uses an assessed value much lower than what your home is actually worth – this info should be on your final tax bill.
Not sure how to complete your declaration? No worries, we’ve got your back! Whether you need a quick rundown on the process or have questions about potential exemptions, reach out anytime, and let’s make sure you avoid any unnecessary surprises.
Help Us, Help Others!
We’re incredibly thankful for the referrals you send our way. They make up a big part of our business. This year, on top of that usual support, we’re aiming to help 12 additional families with buying or selling in Toronto.
If anyone comes to mind who could use some guidance, we’d be honoured by an introduction. We promise to take great care of them (and make you look good ?).
Have a great month!
Chris and Ford
November 2025 Market Report
November 2025 Newsletter
Thurston Olsen Real Estate Group
Hey Friends!
November’s here, and what a month October was!
Between the changing leaves, cozy fall vibes, and the incredible World Series run by our Toronto Blue Jays, it’s hard not to feel inspired. Sure, they didn’t take home the title this year, but the heart, hustle, and camaraderie they showed? That’s what being part of this city is all about. We were beyond thankful to make it to some playoff games, including game 1 of the World Series!
And speaking of excitement, the Toronto real estate market is showing its own kind of energy right now. Buyers are still active, sellers are adjusting strategically, and opportunities continue to pop up across the city.
For those looking to make a move before the end of the year, there is still time to get into your new home before the Holidays!
Planning a move in 2026? Let’s chat now. A little prep this fall goes a long way toward making your home shine when the market heats up again in the new year.
Here’s your November 2025 Market Update!
Thinking About Moving Up? Now Might Be Your Moment
If you bought at the height of the market, you might be wondering if it still makes sense to move. Here’s the surprising truth, it could actually be the perfect time to move up into your next home.
Here’s why:
Even though prices have come down (roughly 12.3% since the peak), that drop also applies to the higher-end homes. So while your current property may have dipped in value a bit, the home you’re moving into has likely dropped by even more in dollar terms.
That means your next move might cost you less than it would have when prices were at their highest, even if your current home has softened a little.
For Example: Let’s say you bought a home for $1 million that’s now worth around $875K. That’s a $125K drop. But that $1.5 million home you’ve been eyeing? It’s also down 12.3%, which means you’re now paying around $1.3 million instead of $1.5. So yeah, on paper you ‘lost’ $125K, but you’re saving $200K on the upgrade. That’s a net win all day long.
So if you’ve been dreaming about a bigger backyard, an extra bedroom, that quiet home office, or that perfect neighbourhood, this could be your window to make it happen.
Curious what the numbers look like for your specific situation?* Let’s crunch them together. You might be surprised at what’s possible in today’s market.
*Numbers will vary depending on type of home and neighbourhood.
What We Are Seeing From the Field
October brought a cooler pace to the Toronto housing market, a trend that’s giving buyers a bit more breathing room. Sales in the city of Toronto were down 6.3% year-over-year, while new listings were relatively flat, meaning there are more homes to choose from and sellers are slowly adjusting to today’s realities.
The average selling price in October came in at $1,069,807, down 8.2% from last October, with the largest decreases seen in Detached and Rowhouse segments. On the flip side, mortgage rates have ticked down slightly, easing monthly payments for those ready to buy.
For confident buyers (especially those secure in their jobs and finances) this market offers an opportunity we haven’t seen in a few years: less competition and more negotiating power. Lower borrowing costs and softer prices mean you can often move up into a home that might have been out of reach during the peak years.
TRREB’s outlook suggests activity will strengthen once there’s more economic certainty, but in the meantime, motivated buyers are quietly taking advantage of these conditions.
In short: while some are sitting on the sidelines, smart buyers are finding value right now, and setting themselves up for long-term wins.
Giving Back!
A huge thank-you to everyone who came out to our first annual Pumpkin Pie Giveaway in the Park! ? We went through 100 pies in just 18 minutes! Clearly, our neighbours have a sweet tooth! It was amazing to see so many familiar faces (and meet some new ones) out enjoying a perfect fall day together. We’re already planning to do it again next year… with even more pies next time around!
And on the topic of community initiatives….please SAVE THE DATE: December 11th for our East Side Food Drive – Holiday Season Edition!
This annual event supports the Daily Bread Food Bank, and it’s one of our favourite ways to give back. We can’t wait to spread some holiday cheer (and pick up a lot of food) across the East End again this season.
Protect Your Largest Investment: Your Home
For most of us, our home is our biggest investment. So it’s important to protect it, especially from the challenges of Canadian winters. A well-maintained home not only ensures comfort and peace of mind but also helps preserve and even increase its value.
By keeping your home in top condition, you’re setting yourself up for a better return when you decide to sell.
Ready to get started? Click below for your complimentary Fall Home Maintenance Checklist to ensure your home stays in prime condition year-round.
We’re Here To Help!
As always, we would be happy to help you and any of your friends, family, colleagues, or neighbours with real estate services or advice. If you can think of anyone who could use our help, feel free to make an introduction! We promise we’ll make you look good.
Cheers!
Chris and Ford
October 2025 Market Report
October 2025 Newsletter
Thurston Olsen Real Estate Group
Hey Friends!
October is here! The leaves are changing, the air’s crisp, and Toronto is settling into fall routines, and pumpkin spice is officially out of hiding. Let’s not forget our beloved Blue Jays return to October Baseball – LET’S GO JAYS!
The real estate market is in full swing too!
Fall is traditionally one of the busiest seasons. Buyers are focused, sellers are motivated, and fresh listings are hitting the market.
It’s a great time to take stock:
Thinking of selling? This is one of the prime windows before the holiday slowdown.
Buying? Inventory typically expands this time of year, giving you more choice.
Just curious? Keeping tabs on your neighbourhood’s market activity can give you a sharper edge when you do decide to move.
And because fall wouldn’t be complete without a little sweetness… let’s just say there may be some pumpkin pie in your future (see below for details!)
Here’s your October 2025 Market Update!
What We Are Seeing From the Field
September gave the Toronto market a bit of a boost. With the Bank of Canada’s recent rate cut, monthly mortgage payments became a little more manageable, and that helped to bring more buyers off the sidelines. Compared to last September, sales jumped 14.1%, even though prices were down about 2.1% year-over-year. Buyers are still enjoying a lot of choice, which means they’ve been able to negotiate in many cases and keep prices in check.
But here’s the twist: not every part of the market feels the same. While condos are moving at a slower pace, in-demand freehold properties are still drawing crowds, and yes, multiple offers are very much still happening in some pockets. Month-to-month, sales ticked up from August while new listings remained steady, which could add a little extra pressure to certain neighbourhoods as we head deeper into the fall market.
The big picture? Buyers are cautiously stepping back in, sellers who price strategically and present well are finding success, and the market continues to be a mix of opportunities and challenges depending on the property type and location. It’s shaping up to be a lively (and competitive) fall season.
Check out the September year-over-year stats below for more information on the current market.
If you would like statistics specific to your neighbourhood, an updated Comparative Market Analysis for your home, or help deciphering what the numbers could mean for you, please let us know and we would be happy to provide that for you.
FREE PUMPKIN PIE!
Join Us At Our First Annual Pie Giveaway
We love our amazing clients and our neighbourhood, so we’re saying THANK YOU the sweetest way we know how… with FREE pie!
On Saturday, October 11 at 10am, we’ll be at Greenwood Park giving away *100 free pumpkin pies.
Come by, grab one, and let’s kick off Thanksgiving weekend together!
*first come, first served. Limit 1 pie per family.
Fixed vs. Variable: What’s the Right Mortgage for You?
One of the most common questions we hear is: should I go with a fixed or variable rate mortgage? The truth is, there’s no one-size-fits-all answer. It really comes down to your comfort level and long-term goals.
A fixed rate gives you stability: you’ll know exactly what your payments are for the entire term. That peace of mind is great for budgeting (especially for first-time buyers), and it protects you if rates rise. The trade-off? Fixed rates usually start a bit higher, and if you need to break your mortgage early, penalties can sting.
A variable rate, on the other hand, often starts lower and has historically cost less over the long run. Penalties for breaking early are typically smaller too. But there’s more uncertainty: your payments can change if rates move, and that can be stressful if you’re tight on cash flow.
Right now, fixed rates are sitting close to long-term averages and look pretty attractive, especially 5-year terms for those who want stability. With that said, with the Bank of Canada expected to cut rates again, variable borrowers could see more savings if they’re comfortable riding out short-term bumps.
At the end of the day, it’s about what helps you sleep at night: the predictability of fixed, or the potential savings of variable. If you’re not sure, we can connect you with one of our trusted mortgage brokers to run the numbers for your situation.
We’re Here To Help!
As always, we would be happy to help you and any of your friends, family, colleagues, or neighbours with real estate services or advice. If you can think of anyone who could use our help, feel free to make an introduction! We promise we’ll make you look good.
Cheers!
Chris and Ford
